DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FORECASTING AT VARIOUS TYPICAL URBAN AREAS

Abstract

The paper provides investigation results pertaining to development of methodology for forecasting traffic accidents using a “conflict zone” method that considers potential danger for two typical urban areas, namely: signaled crossings and bumps that are made in the areas of zebra crossings and it also considers various types and kinds of conflicts. The investigations have made it possible to obtain various indices of threshold sensitivity in respect of  potential risks  and in relation to traffic conflict. The developed methodology for traffic accident forecasting permits to introduce a “conflict zone” method in traffic management.