Methodology for Forecasting Staffing in the Comprehensive Forecast of Scientific and Technological Progress and Directions for its Improvement

Developing and implementing innovative goods, new product groups, services and technologies in all spheres of society in terms of «economic» global digitalization requires advanced training of existing personnel, as well as the emergence of new specialties and professions. In this aspect, it is necessary to forecast the need for personnel in new specialties and specializations, as well as to study the possibilities for advanced training and retraining of existing specialists. The experience of the Comprehensive Forecast of Scientific and Technological Progress (CF STP) of the Republic of Belarus for 2021–2025 and for the period up to 2040 is analyzed in terms of staffing for innovative development. The required human resources potential has been assessed by the method of an expert survey in the process of forming the CF STP. Forecasting the need for personnel in the CF STP had a number of limitations. These limitations could be partially eliminated when developing the next CF STP and other forecasts of the need for personnel in the innovation economy. The paper considers possible directions for improving the forecasting of the provision of the economy with personnel for innovative development. It is advisable to assess the availability of personnel in the economy, taking into account the study of the ratio of supply and demand for them in quantitative and qualitative aspects. Algorithms are proposed for assessing: the needs of the national economy in personnel for innovative development; availability of personnel for innovative development and their competencies in organizations of the real sector of the economy; opportunities of the education system for training personnel for innovative development. The improvement of the methodology for forecasting the availability of personnel will allow to identify the most promising areas of training personnel with the necessary competencies and qualifications capable of developing and implementing technological innovations for the further development of the Republic of Belarus.

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