Trend Models for Analysis of Socio-Economic Security

Correctness of the trend selection for predicting characteristics of socio-economic security statistics can be qualified with the help of a mean square error value and an aspect of “Ascending” and “Descending” series (although there are other aspects, for example, the aspects based on the median of a sample). According to the proposed model, it is possible to predetermine average monitoring errors for development of lower and upper limits of the forecast version in respect of values for characteristics of socio-economic security statistics. Model creation is a labor-intensive process, so that when predicting  characteristics of socio-economic security statistics, it is advisable to use, as a rule, a deterministic component of trend models. At the same time, an assumption about random nature of deviations in empirical values of time series from a trend for 5 %  significance  value is not  rejected.  Study of  the material allows us to admit that it is impossible  to  note exact cycles in time series of values for characteristics of  socio-economic  security  statistics.  However,  this does not represent a basis for the conclusion about presence of cycles in time series of values for characteristics of socio-economic security statistics because these cycles do not coincide in time, there is no clear priority in exceedance of actual values for characteristics of socio-economic security statistics over the calculated ones obtained with the help of models, or, on the contrary, exceedance of the calculated values over the actual ones. Various approaches can be used to calculate a magnitude of the forecast error. Thus, a question pertaining to selection of trend models for an analysis of socio-economic security is natural due to difference in reliability of data when using different models, and correctness of the selection will improve an efficiency of the analysis. So the study acquires practical significance for economic entities and entire industries

socio-economic security, the government, society, enterprise, employee, threat, interests, economics, analysis, system

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