FORECASTING OF PRODUCTION OUTPUT FOR LIGHT INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES WITH PURPOSE TO DETERMINE THEIR POWER RESOURCES REQUIREMENTS. Part 2

The proposed paper is a continuation of the work, published in the previous issue. It is destined for specialists who are engaged in solution of problems pertaining to efficiency of light industry in Belarus which is considered as one of the branches being significantly involved in formation of national economy, its export potential and social climate. It is extremely relevant to reduce production costs in order to preserve and add strength to the branch positions in the markets. Production of natural, synthetic and knitted materials and their subsequent treatment are unreasonably power-consuming processes. Fundamental solution of the problem for reduction of production costs is to decrease its energy component and this can be achieved due to transition to modern heat and power systems in technological complexes of enterprises.

The first part of the paper has considered a range of issues that served as a basis for obtaining statistical models in order to forecast the required production volume of main knitted and textile materials.  Forecasting has been prepared   for a period of more than 20 years because it has been predetermined by development horizon of comprehensive modernization of energy supply systems at enterprises of light industry. The production volumes essentially differ from those that have been stipulated in the programs of light industry.

The present paper shows selection of statistical game-type for determination of  build-up rate of the production volume for every textile enterprise. The so-called “Game with Nature” has been selected as a game which is widely used for solution of analogous demand problems. The statistical forecasting models of production obtained in the first part are applied in the second part of the paper which considers strategies for development of individual enterprises. JSC :Baranovichi Industrial Cotton Association” has been taken an example in the paper. Production volumes of any enterprise are determined on the basis of the development strategies with due account of risk minimization and obtaining maximum average expected profit. The average expected production of the enterprise is determined from these strategies in the light of minimizing risks and maximizing profits. Fundamental capacity of power consumption for designing their own cogeneration plants can be determined while using the concept of intensive energy saving. The concept prescribes  implementation of a systematic approach that takes into account the necessity of maximum utilization of secondary low-temperature production flows, specificity in consumption and generation schedules of energy flows, conditions of an industrial unit that includes the enterprise, requirements of the power system of Belarus under conditions of NPP operation.

основе концепции интенсивного энергосбережения можно установить базовую мощность энергопотребления для проектирования собственных когенерационных установок. Концепция предписывает реализацию системного подхода, учитывающего необходимость максимальной утилизации побочных низкотемпературных потоков производства, специфику графиков потребления и генерации энергопотоков, условия промышленного узла, в который входит предприятие, и требования энергосистемы Беларуси в условиях работы АЭС.

 

payment matrix, risk index, statistical expectation, profitability, "Game with Nature"

1. Alexeeva, M. M. (1997). Planning of company’s activity. ?oscow, Finance and Statistics. 246 p. (in Russian).

2. Market metria – market measurement. Training manual. Part 8. Marketing Journal 4?. Available at: http://www.4p.ru/main/theory/2573/?sphrase_id=667659. (accessed 20 May 2014) (in Russian).

3. Complex programme on development of light industry in the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015 with prospects till 2020. Bellegprom. Available at: http://www.bellegprom.by/prog rams. (accessed 02 october 2013).

4. Golubkov, E. P. (1998). Marketing investigations: theory, methodology and practice. ?oscow, Finpress. 416 p. (in Russian).

5. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Risikomanagement. (2008). Risikoaggregation in der Praxis. Beispiele und Verfahren aus dem Risikomanagement von Unternehmen [Risk aggregation in practice. Examples and procedures of the risk management of companies]. Berlin; Heidelberg, Springer. 250 ?. (German).

6. Gaynor, Patricia E., Kirkpatrick, Rickey C. (1994). Introduction to Time-Series Modeling and Forecasting in Business and Economics. New York; London: McGraw-Hill. 625 ?.

7. Granger, Clive W. J. (1981). Forecasting in business and economics. New York, Academic Pr. 226 ?.

8. Pflug, Georg Ch., Römisch, Werner. (2007). Modeling, Measuring and Managing Risk. New, World Scientific. 286 ?.

9. Zlobina, N. V. (2007). Managerial decisions. Tambov: Publishing House of Tambov State Technical University. 80 p. (in Russian).

10. Modeling of risk situations in economics and business. Bibliotekar.ru. Available at: http://bibliotekar.ru/riskovye-situacii-2/16.htm. . (accessed 20 May 2014) (in Russian).

11. Hull, J. (2007). Optionen, Futures und Andere Derivate. 6th ed. München, Pearson Studium. 946 ?. (German).

12. Larson, Harold J. (1982). Introduction to Probability Theory and Statistical Inference. New York, Wiley. 637 ?.

13. Spanos, Aris. (2000). Probability Theory and Statistical Inference. Econometric Modeling with Observational Data. Cambridge, Cambridge Univ. Press. 815 ?.

14. North, D. Warner. (2010). Probability Theory and Consistent Reasoning. Risk Analysis, 30 (3), 377–380. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01362.x

15. Von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O. (2004). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton, Princeton Univ. Press. 739 p.

16. Light industry of the Republic of Belarus. Presentation by Ewa Gulida. Available at: http://prezi.com/tjllyy7wrfca/copy-of/. (accessed 01 October 2014) (in Russian).

17. Retail trading. National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/otrasli-statistiki/torgovlya/roznichnaya-torgovlya. (accessed 21 February 2014) (in Russian).

18. Foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus, 2014. National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://belstat.gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika/otrasli-statistiki/torgovlya/vneshnyaya-torgovlya_2/ofitsialnye-publikatsii_12/. (accessed 21 February 2014) (in Russian).

19. Report of Government, National Bank on economic activity in 2014 and forecasting for 2015. President of the Republic of Belarus. Official internet portal of President of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.president.gov.by/ru/news_ru/view/otchet-pravitelstva-natsionalnogo-banka-o-rabote-ekonomiki-za-2014-god-i-prognoze-na-2015-god-10158//. (accessed 20 March 2015) (in Russian).

20. Joint Stock Company (JSC) results. (2014). Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Belarus.: Available at: http://www.minfin.gov.by/securities_department/results/results_OAO/. (accessed 06 May 2015) (in Russian).

21. Tarko, Vlad. (2013). Can Probability Theory Deal with Entrepreneurship? The Review of Austrian Economics, 26 (3), 329–345. doi: 10.1007/s11138-012-0193-5.

22. McKinsey, J. C. C. (2012). Introduction to the Theory of Games. Dover Publications. 384 p.

23. On complex business plan for development of linen industry in the Republic of Belarus for 2013–2015: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, March 20, 2013, No. 201. National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.pravo.by/main.aspx?guid=12551&p0=C21300201&p1=1. (accessed 26 March 2015) (in Russian).

24. Programme for development of industrial complex of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2020 year: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, July 5, 2012, No. 622. Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.economy.gov.by/nfiles/001146_12850_Programma. pdf. (accessed 06 May 2014) (in Russian).

25. National programme for development of export in the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus dated May 23, 2011, No. 656. Natsional'nyi reestr pravovykh aktov Respubliki Belarus' [National Register of Legal Acts of the Republic of Belarus], 2011, 60, 5/33840 (in Russian).

26. Alexandrovich, L. M., National Commission on Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus. (2004). National strategy for sustainable social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus for the period till 2020. Minsk: Unipak. 202 p. (in Russian).

27. Sectoral strategy of “Bellegprom” Concern activity under conditions of Common Free Market Zone (CFMZ) for the period till 2017: The strategy has been developed in accordance with the assignments of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, May 10, 2012, No. 07/500-197. Bellegprom [Electronic resource]. Available at: http://www.bellegprom.by/docs/otraslevaya_strategiya.pdf. (accessed 06 May 2014) (in Russian).