ACCIDENT PREDICTION METHODOLOGY USING CONFLICT ZONE METHOD FOR “TRANSIT TRANSPORT-PEDESTRIAN” CONFLICT SITUATION AND MODELS OF TRAFFIC FLOWS AT CONTROLLED INTERSECTION

Accidents are considered as the most significant cost of road traffic. Therefore any measures for road traffic management should be evaluated according to a minimization  criterion of accident losses. In order to develop a method for evaluation of the accident losses it is necessary to prepare a methodology for cost estimate of road accidents of various severity with due account of their consequences and prediction (economic assessment) and severity level of their consequences (quantitative risk assessment). The research has been carried with the purpose to devise appropriate models for accident prediction at a decision-making stage while organizing road traffic in respect of  the “transport-pedestrian” conflict. An interaction of pedestrian and transit road traffic flows  is characterized by rather high risk level. In order to reduce number of road accidents  and  severity of their consequences in the observed conflict, it is necessary to evaluate  proposed solutions, in other words to predict accidents at the stage of object designing and  development of measures.

The paper presents its observations on specificity of road traffic and pedestrian flow interactions and analysis of spatial conflict point formation and conflict zone creation in the studied conflict between transport facilities and pedestrians at controlled pedestrian crossings which are located in the area of intersections. Methodology has been developed for accident prediction in accordance with the conflict zone method for various traffic modes at intersections. Dependences of the represented road traffic accidents (according to consequence severity) on potential danger of conflicts have been determined for various traffic modes and various conditions of conflict interaction.

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