FORECASTING OF PRODUCTION OUTPUT FOR LIGHT INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES WITH PURPOSE TO DETERMINE THEIR POWER RESOURCES REQUIREMENTS. Part 1

The paper presents an interest for those specialists who are involved in solution of efficiency problems in light industry of Belarus as one of the significant industries that forms an economic situation in the Republic, its export potential and social climate. It is extremely relevant for the Belarusian enterprises to reduce production costs in order to preserve and strengthen positions in the light industry market. Operating capacities for production of natural, synthetic textile and knit-wear materials and their subsequent treatment are in many respects unjustifiably energy intensive. Nowadays the only acceptable solution of the problem for reduction of production costs is to decrease its energy component. Such approach requires transition to creation of modern heat and power supply systems at heat technology enterprises.

The most important sub-system of the enterprises is own combined production of energy flows of secondary electrical and heat energy, freeze. There is a complex of problems that arise during designing process of tri-generation unit. One of the most important problems presupposes determination of a base load demand and capacity of every energy flow generated by an energy source. The solution is directly related to production output, which in its turn is determined by the requirements of sales markets. Due to various reasons the markets have their own specificity for the enterprises under consideration. It is proposed to use statistical methods for searching requirements. In this connection it is necessary to take into account industry development rate (pre-determined by State Programs, Plans, Governmental solutions, including directive instructions), production volumes of competitive goods and actual goods situation on the sales market.

The paper presents the first part of the executed complex investigations which are directed on the development of scientifically-substantiated proposals for higher energy efficiency of the industry as a whole. It has become possible on the basis of the results obtained in the process of studying its power and heat engineering problems. The results of an analytical calculation analysis of statistical and obtained forecasting data are considered as a basis for the development of scientifically substantiated proposals for modernization of energy supply systems and power resource saving of the industry that fully corresponds to the investigation objective. The result of the executed investigations, that is a significant reduction of the energy component in the production costs will be presented in the follow-up publications. 

1. Report of Government, National Bank on Economic Activity in 2014 and Forecasting for 2015. President of the Republic of Belarus. Official Internet Portal of President of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.president.gov.by/ru/ news_ru/view/otchet-pravitelstva-natsionalnogo-banka-o-raboteekonomiki-za-2014-god-i-prognoze-na-2015-god10158//. (Accessed: 20 March 2015).

2. Light Industry is Producing to Stock. Naviny.by. Economics. Available at: http://naviny.by/rubrics/economic/2006/ 11/20/ic_news_113_262386/. (Accessed: 12 February 2015).

3. Legina, P. (2014) Away for Stocking. Belarussy i Rynok [Belarusians and Market], 23 (1106), June 9–15, Available at: http://www.belmarket.by/ru/278/70/22443/Ushla-nasklad.htm/. (Accessed: 23 March 2015).

4. Complex Programme on Development of Light Industry in the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015 with Prospects Till 2020 Bellegprom. Available at: http://www.bellegprom.by/ programs. (Accessed: 2 October 2013).

5. On complex Business Plan for Development of Linen Industry in the Republic of Belarus for 2013–2015: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, March 20, 2013, No 201. National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.pravo.by/main.aspx?guid= 12551&p0=C21300201&p1=1. (Accessed: 26 March 2015).

6. Activity Programme of the Government of the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, February 18, 2011, No 216. National Legal Internet Portal of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.pravo.by/main.aspx? guid=3871&p0=C21100216&p2=%7BNRPA%7D. (Accessed: 6 May 2014).

7. Programme for Development ?f Industrial Complex of the Republic of Belarus for the Period up to 2020. Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, July 5, 2012, No 622. Ministry of Economics of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://www.economy.gov.by/nfiles/001146_ 12850_Programma. pdf. (Accessed: 6 May 2014).

8. On State Forecasting and Programmes for Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus: Law of the Republic of Belarus Dated May 5, 1998. No 157-?. Vedamastsi Natsionalnogo Skhodu Respubliki Belarus [Bulletin of National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus], 1998, 20, Article 222 (in Russian).

9. Programme for Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015: Decree of the President of the Republic of Belarus dated April 11, 2011, No 136. Natsional'nyi Reestr Pravovykh Aktov Respubliki Belarus' [National Register of Legal Acts of the Republic of Belarus], 2011, 43, 1/12462 (in Russian).

10. Activity Programme of the Government of the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, February 18, 2011, No 216. Natsional'nyi Reestr Pravovykh Aktov Respubliki Belarus' [National Register of Legal Acts of the Republic of Belarus], 2011, 29, 5/33370 (in Russian).

11. National Programme for Development of Export in the Republic of Belarus for 2011–2015: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, dated May 23, 2011, No 656. Natsional'nyi Reestr Pravovykh Aktov Respubliki Belarus' [National Register of Legal Acts of the Republic of Belarus], 2011, 60, 5/33840 (in Russian).

12. Republican Programme on Power Saving for 2011–2015: Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus dated December 24, 2010, No 1882: as Amended and Supplemented dated December 23, 2013, No 1115. Natsional'nyi Reestr Pravovykh Aktov Respubliki Belarus' [National Register of Legal Acts of the Republic of Belarus], 2011, 1, 5/33067 (in Russian).

13. Alexandrovich, L. M. (2004) National Strategy for Sustainable Social and Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus for the Period till 2020. Minsk, Publishing House Unipak. 202 p. (in Russian).

14. Sectoral Strategy of “Bellegprom” Concern Activity Under Conditions of Common Free Market Zone (CFMZ) for the Period till 2017: the Strategy Has Been Developed in Accordance with the Assignments of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, May 10, 2012, No 07/500-197. Bellegprom. Available at: http://www.bellegprom.by/docs/ otraslevaya_strategiya.pdf. (Accessed: 6 May 2014).

15. Zinovsky, V. I. (2014) Foreign Trade of the Republic of Belarus, 2014. Statistical Book. National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus. Available at: http://belstat. gov.by/ofitsialnaya-statistika /otrasli-statistiki/torgovlya/vnesh?? ya-torgovlya_2/ofitsialnye-publikatsii_12/index_ 529/. (Accessed: 20 March 2015).

16. Schonberger, H., Schafer, T. Best Available Techniques in Textile Industry. Berlin: Federal Environmental Agency. Available at: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publi kationen/best-available-techniques-in-textile-industry. (Accessed: 5 June 2014).

17. Textiles and Clothing Industry. European Commission. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/sectors/tex tiles/statistics/indexen.htm. (Accessed: 26 October 2013).

18. Johnson, A. (1989) The Theory of Coloration of Textiles. 2th ed. Bradford, Society of Dyers and Colourists. 552 p.

19. Krichevsky, G. E. (1981) Diffusion and Sorption in the Process of Dyeing and Printing. ?oscow, Liogkaya Industriya. 208 p. (in Russian).

20. Wang, Jung-Der. (2011) Global Trends in the Textile Industry. ILO Encyclopedia of Occupational Health and Safety. Available at: http://www.ilo.org/oshenc/part-xiv/tex tile-goods-industry/item/878-global-trends-in-the-textile-industry. (Accessed: 26 February 2014).

21. World Apparel Fiber Consumption Survey July 2013. International Cotton Advisory Committee. Available at: https:// www.icac.org/ cotton_info/publications/statistics/world-apparelsurvey/FAO-ICAC-Survey-2013-Update-and-2011-Text. pdf. (Accessed: 6 January 2014).

22. Cotton Market. UNCTAD. Available at: http://r0. unctad.org/infocomm/anglais/cotton/market.htm. (Accessed: 26 June 2014).

23. Review of Cotton Fabric Market Export.by Export Information Support Portal. Available at: http://export.by/?act =s_docs&mode=view&id=26538&type=&doc=64. (Accessed: 6 May 2014).

24. Hong Kong Wto Ministerial 2005: Briefing Notes. Textiles and Clothing Statistics. World Trade Organization. Available at: http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/ min05_e/brief_e/brief23_e.htm. (Accessed: 20 March 2014).

25. Statistics on Textiles and Clothing Statistics. European Commission. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/enter prise/ sectors/ textiles/files/statistics/textiles_en.pdf. (Accessed: 6 March 2014).

26. Forecasting of Demand. Pandiaweb.ru Encyclopedia of Knowledge. Available at: http://www.pandia.ru/text/77/203/ 78610.php. (Accessed: 27 March 2015).

27. Golubkov, E. P. (1998) Marketing Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice. ?oscow, Finpress. 416 p. (in Russian).

28. Hull, J. (2007) Optionen, Futures und Andere Derivate. 6th ed. München, Pearson Studium. 946 p.

29. Hull, J. (2001) Einführung in Futuresund Optionsmärkte. 3rd Edition. München, Wien: Oldenbourg. 677 p.

30. Kliouchnikov, A. D. (2000) Intensive Power Saving: Prerequisites, Methods, Consequences. Teploenergetika [HeatPower Engineering], 11, 12?16 (in Russian).

31. Shinsky, F. (1981) Control Over Processes on Energy Saving Criterion. ?oscow, Publishing House “Mir”. 388 p.