Realization of Industry Export Potential in the Republic of Belarus: Trends, Factors, Perspectives

Main development trends and complex of internal and external factors influencing on export potential of the industrial sector in the Republic of Belarus have been revealed and determined on the basis of the analysis of national and international statistical databases and method for expert assessment. Relevance of the research is to demonstrate that industry creates a significant part of commodity exports in the small open economy of the Republic of Belarus which has adopted a course to post-industrialization as a national strategy. Absolute figures of the Belarusian export of services are 3.4 times lower than values of the commodity export, 92.4 % of which is provided by manufacturing industry. It is in the sphere of industrial production that we should look for the reasons of long-term trend to reducing physical and cost volumes of Belarusian export, deterioration of its commodity and geographical structure, negative balance of trade and account of current operations. Main positions of the Belarusian commodity exports which form 70 % of its volume to non-CIS countries are raw materials exposed to unstable price environment in the world market, although the mining industry accounts for only 1.2 % while the manufacturing industry creates 85.6 % of the sector’s gross output. The study refutes the conclusion that problems associated with implementation of an export potential of domestic industry should be explained by the crisis of industrial production, proving that post-industrialization, accompanied by a reduction, curtailment or cross-border transfer of industrial production, is not so clear and does not bring the expected macroeconomic results. Reindustrialization, achievement of a breakthrough in the use of information technologies for a new quality of industrial production, which involves reorientation of IT-sector in Belarus operating on the basis of an outsourcing model from external to domestic market and solution of problems concerning system modernization of industry must become a national strategy aimed at the development and implementation of the industry’s export potential.

1. Republic of Belarus in 2017: Statistical Book. Minsk, National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, 2017. 506 (in Russian).

2. Foreign Trade of the Republic of Belarus in 2017: Statistical Book. Minsk, National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, 2017. 389. World Economic Situation and Prospect 2016. UN, 2016. Available at: www.un.org/wesp2016_en.pdf. (Accessed 12 April 2017) (in Russian).

3. Doing Business in Belarus 2018: National Agency for Investment and Privatization. Available at: www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-doing-business-belarus-2018eng/%24File/ey-doing-business-belarus-2018-eng.pdf. (Accessed 20 June 2018).

4. Podgayskii A. L. (2015) Structural Dynamics in ExportOrientated Industrial Branches and Activities Directed on Stimulation of Belarusian Export. Vestnik Minskogo Gosudarstvennogo Lingvisticheskogo Universiteta = Bulletin of Minsk State Linguistic University, (14), 101–109 (in Russian).

5. Trade Map: Trade Statistics for International Business Development. Available at: https://www.trademap.org/(s(15qgmafwvupmho1d5xnug34s))/CountrySelProductCountry/aspx?nvpm=1|112||||Total|||2|1|2|2|1|1|2. (Accessed 20 June 2018).

6. Tochitskaya I. (2017) Indices of Export Activity in Belarus Within Period of 1998?2016: What are Chances for its Growth? IPM Research Center. Available at: https://www.research.by/webroot/delivery/files/wp2917r02pdf. (Accessed 29 June 2018) (in Russian).

7. Matyas A. A. (2017) Macroeconomic and Structural Policy in the Republic of Belarus: Retrospective Analysis, Problems and Directions of Development. Belorusskii Ekonomicheskii Zhurnal = Belarusian Economic Journal, (3), 7–25 (in Russian).

8. Abramchuk N. (2017) Export of Highly-Technological Products in the Republic of Belarus and its Geographical Diversification. Bankovskii Vestnik = Bank Bulletin, (1), 59?66 (in Russian).

9. Glaziev S. Yu. (2012) Modern Theory of Long Waves in Development of Economy. Ekomicheskaya Nauka Sovremennoi Rossii = Economics of Contemporary Russia, 57 (2), 8–27 (in Russian).

10. Didyulya L. V. (2010) International Economics. Grodno, Grodno State Agrarian University. 81 (in Russian).

11. Inozemtsev V. L. (2000) Modern Post-Industrial Society: Nature, Contradictions, Prospects. Moscow, Logos Publ. 132 (in Russian).

12. GDP Composition by Sector of Origin 2017. Available at: http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2012.html.

13. Countries Statistical Profiles: Key Tables from OECD. Available at: http://www.oecd-library.org/csp-table-2018-2-en.pdf.

14. Western Europe: De-Industrial Revolution. Available at: http://www.sd.net.ua/2011/11/24/zapadnaya-evropa-deindustrialnaya-revolyucia.html (in Russian).

15. Germany Top 500: Global Grows in Times of National Focus. Available at: http://www.accenture.com/de-de/top500-2017-en.pdf.

16. UNIDO Industrial Development Report 2018. Available at: https://unido.org/sites/default/files/files/201711/TDR2018-OVERVIEW-ENGLISH.pdf. (Accessed 24 June 2018).