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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">sat</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">НАУКА и ТЕХНИКА</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Science &amp; Technique</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2227-1031</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2414-0392</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Belarusian National Technical University</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">sat-67</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИЕ КОМПЛЕКСЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ENERGETIC COMPLEXES</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ЧРЕЗВЫЧАЙНЫХ СИТУАЦИЙ ИССЛЕДУЕМОГО ОБЪЕКТА И ОЦЕНКА ВОЗМОЖНЫХ ПОСЛЕДСТВИЙ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>EMERGENCY FORECASTING FOR INVESTIGATED OBJECT AND ASSESSMENT OF POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Пилиневич</surname><given-names>Л. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pilinevich</surname><given-names>L. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"/><email xlink:type="simple">kafpie@bysuir.by</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гончарик</surname><given-names>Е. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Hancharyk</surname><given-names>E. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Аспирант</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kafpie@bysuir.by</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Белорусский государственный университет информатики и радиоэлектроники</institution><country>Беларусь</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics</institution><country>Belarus</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2014</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>06</month><year>2014</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>69</fpage><lpage>73</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Пилиневич Л.П., Гончарик Е.В., 2014</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2014</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Пилиневич Л.П., Гончарик Е.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Pilinevich L.P., Hancharyk E.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://sat.bntu.by/jour/article/view/67">https://sat.bntu.by/jour/article/view/67</self-uri><abstract><p>Приведен анализ факторов, вызывающих появление и развитие техногенных чрезвычайных ситуаций. На конкретном примере определены зоны разрушения объектов в результате действия ударной волны при взрыве одной цистерны пропана.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The paper presents an analysis of factors inducing an occurrence and development of technogenic emergencies. Zones of object destruction have been determined on a certain example. The object destruction is a result of the impulse wave occurred during an explosion of one propane tank.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>прогнозирование</kwd><kwd>техногенные чрезвычайные ситуации</kwd><kwd>оценка</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>forecasting</kwd><kwd>technogenic emergency situation</kwd><kwd>assessment</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Дорожко, С. В. Защита населения и объектов в чрезвычайных ситуациях. Радиационная безопасность: пособие : в 3 ч. 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